The Path To A Socialist President
The Path To A Socialist President
On third-party voting and long-term thinking.
In the past few weeks, there’s been a lot of online discourse about how leftists should be voting in the 2024 election. Much of this was toxic—reductive takes about how “you’re not a real leftist if you [vote in this way/don’t vote]”, claims that we should “burn it all down and start over”—although some was valuable. Left-wingers in this country are very reasonably frustrated with the Democratic Party’s inability to fend off right-wing fascism and their shared-bank-account relationship with capitalism and imperialism. As an eco-socialist abolitionist feminist, I agree with these critiques of the Democrats: there is absolutely a need for an alternative leftist political party in the United States (along with an increase in mutual aid, labor strikes, and other non-electoral action). As my activist mentor James Flores taught me, Only The People Can Save The People.
In particular, there’s a renewed interest among leftists in voting for third party candidates, as there is every four years. I will never judge someone else’s decision to vote one way or another in this messed-up political system. Unfortunately though, the conditions are not set for a third party candidate to win in America in 2024. The Green Party, by far the most popular third party, has never won a seat in the House of Representatives or Senate, and has never received more than 2.7% of the popular vote for the presidency. In recent American history, third parties have done little more than siphon votes from the two major parties, leading to Republican victories. Even if current Green Party Presidential candidate, Dr. Jill Stein, somehow won the presidency—already an impossibility outside of some catastrophe that took out Kalama Harris and Donald Trump at once, leaving voters with no other choice—she would then be opposed by every Democrat and every Republican in Congress, and nothing would ever get done. This is a non-starter in today’s climate; a genuine leftist president would have to be accompanied by a strong leftist electoral presence at various levels across the country, a presence that would take several years to fully develop.
That’s not to say that American third parties are entirely impossible. I would love it if our country was led by a left-winger, and I think if the American Left took electoral politics seriously, we would get a such a leader sooner than we think. While I could definitely make the argument that a third party vote in 2024 is a wasted vote, in this post I want to take the cause of real third party work completely seriously: if we started right now, how long would it take for a leftist political party to gain a Congressional presence and win the Presidency?
I’ve been invested in American politics for about twelve years, I’ve been a political activists for about five years, and I’ve even been involved in some electoral organizing work; when I lived in Connecticut, I was involved in getting Puerto Rican people registered to vote and (successfully) getting members of our activist coalition elected to local office, mostly as Green Party candidates. Given what I know about American politics, I’d like to speculate on how a leftist electoral victory might work, making key assumptions along the way. This is my own opinion from my limited perspective; I don’t have a degree in political science, I’m just a humble organizer who’s trying to be as optimistic as I can while also trying to be realistic about possible the timeline of events. I may even disagree with this prediction literally three months from now. I’m not even saying that this is what “should” happen. I’m simply outlining one possible path toward a Presidential candidate that leftists can actually get behind. Consider this a work of speculative fiction, a roadmap for leftist electoral victory given the current political circumstances. In other words, let’s exist in the context of all in which we live and what came before us.
Here’s my prediction for a best case scenario as to how I think we can get a socialist candidate to become president…
The 2024 election will shake out as follows: a record number of people will vote for third parties given widescale frustration with modern politics, but Kamala Harris will beat out Trump by an uncomfortably small margin. Republicans will try to contest the election, either through courts or direct interference by militia on election day, but these efforts, fortunately, fail. We all breathe a collective sigh of relief, but then, we get to work.
Starting in 2025, Leftists and progressive Democrats start taking local politics incredibly seriously. This doesn’t mean we all drop everything we’re doing in order to do electoral work, but it does mean that enough of us start showing up to town hall meetings, canvassing for causes we care about, and yes, preparing to run for office. There were 17,058 uncontested elections in 2024, meaning literally 73% of all elected positions in political office were won because nobody ran against them. Even without much financial backing, having good policies and consistent moral character is enough to win progressives plenty of seats. If leftists can get some financial backing through grassroots organizing, even better.
In 2026, leftists running as Green Party candidates (and in some cases progressive Democrats) win thousands of elections, mostly in local townships but also a few state-level positions and even one seat in the national House of Representatives and the Senate. (I’m operating under the assumption that leftists broadly run as Green Party candidates, since they are the eco-socialist party who cares the most about climate change, human rights, etc. In reality, leftists would likely be very fractured about state-specific groups like the Working Families Party.) For simplicity’s sake, I’ll show the Senate makeup over time as a stand-in for general political trends…
By 2028, there are more than ten thousand of Leftist Green Party candidates in local and state offices, and they’ve got a lot done. A high-profile climate disaster shakes the Midwest, and people start to take notice that people in Green counties are significantly better off than people in red and blue districts, since the Green Party folks invested in climate resilience infrastructure and affordable housing. They’re also noting the success of alternatives to policing, as programs like the Denver STAR are thriving thanks to the increased funding that the Greens fought for. Meanwhile, Republicans are in crisis; they reshaped themselves in the image of Trump, but now he’s lost two elections in a row. Out of sheer desperation, they run a now 82-year-old, decrepit Donald who can barely string a sentence together. He spouts the same anti-immigrant drivel as always, but by this point, Leftists have successfully brought consistent pro-immigration rhetoric to the forefront of the American politics, something that Democrats have always failed to do. With Trumpian fascism less popular than ever, and thus less of a threat than ever, the Democrats win the presidency in a landslide, but more people than ever are empowered to vote third party. In fact, the Green Party finally wins more than 5% of the popular vote, meaning they qualify for federal funding for their NEXT election.
Over the next several years, a gradual shift takes place that fundamentally shifts American politics. Republicans are less successful than ever before, but they never fully go away; America is too racist to let go of their far-right traditions. However, because Republicans fade in cultural relevance, some Democrats no longer have to pretend to be progressive to contrast themselves with their rivals, so the party fractures. Progressive Democrats are pretty popular, but so are more socially conservative ones: Southern Democrats, former Trumpers who embraced some libertarian ideals, and politicians who are completely in the pocket of Big Tech and Big Oil. At the same time, openly socialist candidates gain ground at the federal level, and a few states—probably Hawaii, Vermont, and Massachusetts—are now fully Green, with Green governors and Green candidates all the way down. This creates four different coalitions of elected officials with four different economic ideologies: far-right fascism (Trumpian Republicans/red), liberal capitalism without regulation (Conservative Democrats/purple), liberal capitalism with lots of regulations (Progressive Democrats/blue), and eco-socialism (Green Party/green).
By 2036, this has already created an environment where two-party gridlock isn’t inevitable. Sometimes, the socialist and left-leaning Democrats work in coalition to beat the conservative coalition. Sometimes, both types of Democrats join up to beat the socialists. This is not ideal, but it’s leagues better than eternal gridlock between two capitalist parties. The Senate Filibuster has long been abolished by the Democrats, meaning that parties are forced to compromise where possible. Finally, the conditions are there to tackle the Big Bad: abolishing the electoral college, the thing holding the third parties back for years. This requires a constitutional amendment, and while a lot of voters are approving of the idea, the Powers That Be—Democrats of all kinds and the giant corporations who control them—very much enjoy the stronghold they have on the political system. There are some major battles over the next few years in both state legislatures and the courts, but by 2039, an alternative system—something akin to ranked-choice voting—is implemented. Remember, this whole time the Green Party has been gradually gaining ground, with more Green governors, judges, Superintendents, and other local-level officials every year. This means that by 2040, there are a host of viable, widely popular leftist Presidential candidates to choose from.
A cutthroat 2040 Presidential race takes place between an incumbent Democrat and a radical Green Party socialist. It’s close, but with the new voting system implemented, the Green Party wins! Our country’s leadership finally consists of people who wholeheartedly welcome immigrants, take climate change seriously, and start the process of defunding police and prisons nationwide. And it all happened through the long-term embracing of empathic ideals and the hard work of leftists on the ground.
Wasn’t that such a nice story? Wasn’t that far more inspiring than “letting it all burn”?
Now, I don’t know if any of that is going to happen. It assumes that all leftists “go green” instead of engaging in infighting and fracturing off into sectarian micro-parties. It assumes that the capitalist Powers That Be aren’t able to use their near-infinite financial resources to squash them into dust like they did with Jamaal Bowman. It assumes that leftists will be able to put down their cell phones and get out into the streets for canvassing, fundraising, and campaigning while also juggling their many non-electoral projects. It assumes that the far-right doesn’t infiltrate the movement. It assumes that leftists are able to bring socialist rhetoric to a country that has received anti-socialist propaganda for decades.
Also, I imagine a lot of people would be frustrated with the length of time this plan takes. We need to tackle climate change right now! Gazans are dying right now! And I agree; this all sucks!! I hate that changing people’s minds takes time, I hate that the people currently in power can barely be pushed left on any issue. This is a terrible situation to be in. I just want us to think long-term about how we solve our problems. We’re not living in a TV show where some hero is gonna save the day in the nick of time; we have to make the change ourselves. It should also be said that Republicans fought for fifty years to overturn Roe v. Wade, and are still seeking ways to overturn interracial marriage and other widely-popular human rights laws. Those guys are always playing the long game, so we need to be too.
There have also been calls for people to “forget elections, do mutual aid and direct action”! I also agree with this. Get out there and do that stuff! But if leftists 100% abandon electoral work, then we’re always just gonna be reacting to whatever crazy thing the Powers That Be throw at us instead of acting to make the world better. Can we not do two things at once? Can we not at least try to get some actual leaders on our side? All the things leftists want would be significantly easier if we had financial resources. Electoral politics is not the revolution—the master’s tools can never dismantle the master’s house—but it can create the conditions for revolution by gradually taking power away from corporations and giving it back to working people. Revolution isn’t a single election or event—that’s Rapture ideology—it’s a way of being, a way of being that becomes significantly easier when we’re not battling to simply survive.
I think the key divide between “burn it all down” leftists and “yeah, the system sucks, but we gotta play with the cards we’ve been dealt” leftists—the former of which advocates against voting for Kamala Harris and the latter generally advocates for it—is one between statism and anti-statism. In other words, do you want there to be such a thing as a federal government (socialism, communism) or not (anarchy)? I am very much inspired by anarchism, particularly the ideas of abolishing borders and emphasizing community care above a reliance on the State to enforce equal rights. I hope that one day in the future, we are not at all dependent on the State for survival. At the same time, I reject accelerationism; in my opinion, the path to liberation should not involve letting everything go to shit first. Letting Trump get into office will not create the conditions for a worker’s revolution. We know this because Trump was already in office for four years; mostly, leftists were just traumatized (or deported, or sent to prison, or killed by police). As a trans person whose ability to exist would be directly challenged by a second Trump term, I do not consent to being sacrificed so that a few Internet addicts can feel morally righteous for a moment. Unfortunately for my morals, if Kamala Harris has a shot at beating Trump, I have to take it. All government officials are ops, but until the above happens, I will continue voting for my weakest adversary. In my opinion, her presidency will buy us another four years to build a more solid movement.
That said, you won’t catch me simping for Kamala on main, either. It’s still too early on to really say what her presidency would be like; she hasn’t posted any official policy objectives, so everyone talking about what her term would be like is doing little more than extrapolating from her complicated past. In order for me to become fully Coconut-Pilled, the following must be in her plan: (1) A full-throated support for protecting trans rights and abortion rights at the federal level, including an endorsement of the Trans Bill of Rights. (2) A commitment to a Green New Deal, Red New Deal, or some other massive investment in climate-friendly infrastructure. (3) Increased funding for alternatives to police. (4) A deep reinvestment in public education, particularly for K-12 teachers and STEM programs for communities of color. (5) A call for a ceasefire that includes a commitment to stop weapons shipments to Israel if they continue their assault on the Palestinian people. This list is me low-balling my expectations with the understanding that all Democrats are ultimately capitalist and imperialist, but these are currently-realizable versions of the political issues that are most important to me. I will also never, ever judge someone for not voting or voting third-party if that’s what they feel morally compelled to do.
This will be a bumpy election season. Throughout all the hot takes, I hope you remember that if you want a Leftist to be your elected official several years from now, you need to start organizing for them today.
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That’s all for now! See you next week with more sweet, sweet content.
In solidarity,
-Anna
Thank you for the post. I hope that leftists in the US can start down such a path, but I'll be honest and say I'm not confident democracy in the US is even going to survive this election, let alone 15 years on. But if there's any hope, it has to look something like what you describe; we have to organize over the long term.