In the days leading up to the 2024 election, my social media feed became filled with a perplexing yet seductive sentiment: that all the polls showing a close race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump were wrong.
Some left-leaning content creators were predicting an absolute blowout of Democratic voter turnout that would result in a Harris landslide. Consider how Kamala has all these new supporters, that even some Republican leaders have come out in favor of her, meanwhile Trump has only lost support since 2020! these creators argued. Gen Z turnout is gonna be insane, and Trump’s base is dying off! others claimed. Forget the polls and look at the size of Kamala’s rallies compared to Trump’s, some argued, literally prioritizing a “vibes-based assessment” over data. These claims were bolstered by an admittedly surprising poll by Ann Selzer, famous for accurately predicting many elections in the past, who had predicted a +3 lead (44 Trump, 47 Harris) in the red state of Iowa just a few days before the election. If Iowa is flipping blue, who KNOWS what else will happen!! Even Rachel Maddow got in on the action, citing the Selzer poll and feeling the same confidence that many Americans seemed to share: that Kamala would only build on the support that Biden had in 2020, whereas Trump would only lose supporters. We had this in the bag.
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